Dr. Jeff Andresen, state climatologist for Michigan and a professor in the MSU Department of Geography, joins Kirk Heinze on Greening of the Great Lakes to catch up on recent climate patterns in Michigan as we enter the first weeks of summer.
Following what Andresen reports as the 5th warmest winter on record, Michiganders can continue to expect mean temperatures warmer than normal as we transition from El Nino to La Nina in the coming months. He explains the transition is a global phenomenon, which is why it rightfully gets so much attention.
Dr. Jeff Andresen, state climatologist for Michigan and a professor in the MSU Department of Geography, joins Kirk Heinze on Greening of the Great Lakes to catch up on recent climate patterns in Michigan as we enter the first weeks of summer.
Following what Andresen reports as the 5th warmest winter on record, Michiganders can continue to expect mean temperatures warmer than normal as we transition from El Nino to La Nina in the coming months. He explains the transition is a global phenomenon, which is why it rightfully gets so much attention.
“El Nino turns out to be the most important tool there is in the long-lead outlook prediction business. It’s a very important component of global climate and allows meteorologists and climatologists to look out beyond more than a few days or a few weeks. We can actually look out months in advance.”
Although direct correlations are difficult, El Nino generally means warmer winters and drier conditions in the Great Lakes region, and Michiganders certainly experienced a winter much milder than the previous two, Andresen says. And after a wet spring, much of Michigan is in need of some rain.
“The long outlook for the remainder of the summer itself has been consistent in calling for warmer than normal mean temperatures,” he adds.
Andresen shares that spikes in temperature are being felt outside of Michigan as well with the highest recorded global temperature, including land and ocean, occurring earlier this spring. Fifteen of the highest monthly temperatures ever recorded have occurred in the last 15 months.
Along with the higher current temperatures, precipitation levels are unusually low leaving southern and eastern Michigan farmers dependent on irrigation relatively early in the growing season.
“We really are in need of water, in many parts of the state, not all, but more and more each day because we have been trending drier than normal over roughly the past four to six weeks,” he explains. “We need a lot of water at this time of year.”
More on the matter of water in Michigan, Andresen talks about the dramatic changes in lake levels in over the past three years, from near record-breaking lows to all-time highs. He believes that some of the increase can be attributed to the aforementioned severe winters which created significant ice cover. The ice, in turn, reduced lake water evaporation.
“The change that we have observed here, really since the winters of 2013 and 2014 is nothing short of incredible, almost record breaking,” says Andresen. “It’s one of the most rapid increases in lake levels that we’ve seen historically.”
Andresen closes by sharing the relationship between rising greenhouse gases and CO2 levels, up over 400 parts per million, and changing climate patterns transpiring globally.
“We know without question there is a very, very strong correlation between the concentration of these gasses and our surface temperatures,” He says. “The warming of the last century and a half just cannot be explained by the atmospheric noise alone.”